Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6''' major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. AndrewTalk To Me 19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC) : I predict '''19 depressions, 18 '''named storms, '''11 hurricanes, and 4''' majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC) : 20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why?rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC) IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Isis retired Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.) rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC) :That hasn't been confirmed yet. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC) ::It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC) Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.--Isaac829 01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC) : The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. ''Ryan1000'' 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC) :::NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC) :::This doesn't surprise me, I knew the name 'Isis' would have a chance of retirement, after what happened to Adolph in 2001 leeboy100My Talk! 14:09, June 29, 2015 (UTC) November AOI: Middle of Nowhere AOI: Middle of Nowhere After a week of a completely blank tropical weather outlook, there's finally a new AOI. However, the chance of development is only 10/10 due to unfavorable conditions. Hopefully conditions become favorable enough for a November storm this year. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:14, November 3, 2015 (UTC) : Still 10/10, and this one's not likely to become much at all. '[[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 00:13, November 4, 2015 (UTC) ::: Gone. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 20:10, November 4, 2015 (UTC) 98E.INVEST AOI: Middle of Nowhere (2) then theres this. 10/10 as the above --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 16:04, November 3, 2015 (UTC) 98E.INVEST Actually, it's been invested as well. Of the three AOI's on the TWO right now, this is looking the best. Maybe, just maybe, it will form against the odds. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:26, November 3, 2015 (UTC) : Up to 20/20. It would have to try very hard to actually become something though, as conditions aren't getting any more favorable any time soon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:22, November 3, 2015 (UTC) :: Due to unfavorable conditions, we most likely won't see much from this or the other two surprise AOI's that popped up. I was pretty surprised when I saw all these new AOI's pop up, maybe the EPac doesn't want to give up yet. Anyways it won't be that shocking to me if it actually did try to organize and become something, but it's going to have a very hard time under the upper-level winds. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 00:13, November 4, 2015 (UTC) :::: Meh, 0/0 now. At least it became an invest, but it's too bad it wasn't a surprise tropical depression. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 20:11, November 4, 2015 (UTC) ::::: It is still here and at 0/0, currently. It pretty much sucks that we didn't see it become much, as expected, due to unfavorable upper-level winds around the area. Rick may have to wait, if we even see it at all this year. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 22:53, November 4, 2015 (UTC) :Gone. The EPac rapidly dies away after October, we could get another storm in November but November is the least active month of hurricane season. Kenneth '11 was the only major hurricane to form in the EPac during November, and it didn't last long when it did so. 'Ryan1000' 15:11, November 5, 2015 (UTC) AOI: Middle of Nowhere (3) A bunch of small circulations are popping up along the monsoon trough, and now we've got 3 of them. This one's a ways to the west of the other two. It's only 10/10 though, and like the other two, conditions are unfavorable. : This looks like it is going to move into the CPac, and if it does develop, an extreme 9 CPac forming storms this year! '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 00:13, November 4, 2015 (UTC) :: This one is now being monitored in the CPac basin since it has crossed over there. However, it is at 0%. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 22:53, November 4, 2015 (UTC) AOI: 1110 Miles SSW of Honululu One of two more low chance AOI's that have popped up in the CPAC, this one's at 0%, however it does say development, if any, will be slow to occur, maybe meaning a slight shot by 5 days. It's odd how many of these low probablity invest there are... : These are just random AOIs that won't develop. I'm thinking that it is very likely that we won't see our CPac 9th named storm... '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 22:53, November 4, 2015 (UTC) AOI: 1200 Miles W of Honululu Yet another 0/0 AOI popped up, also in the CPAC. I don't expect this to develop at all, it's really just there. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 20:15, November 4, 2015 (UTC) : Another random AOI. It won't develop, lol. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 22:53, November 4, 2015 (UTC) ::: All four of the recent AOI's in the EPAC and CPAC last TWO are gone, leaving the EPAC/CPAC empty and boring once again. I'm also not sure what's happened to the Pacific typhoon season, it shouldn't be so inactive right now. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:27, November 5, 2015 (UTC) ::::: Although the AOI dropped off the TWO a day ago, deep convection still remains, and I'm surprised it hasn't been kept as a 0/0 AOI. EDIT: Despite the satellite appearence, looks like there's no sign of a circulation. Oh well. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:32, November 5, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Wave (November 8 - November 9) Tropical Wave (November 8 - November 9) Here's a new wave in the EPac, but I'm not sure if it is completely separate from a previous Atlantic wave. I hope we see a November storm from this wave! Axis currently extends from 08N100W to 18N100W and it's just south of Mexico. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 17:07, November 8, 2015 (UTC) : I'm glad another tropical wave made it to the EPAC! Nothing on the five day outlook currently though, I hope conditions are becoming more favorable, as the sudden appearence of all those low probability invests a few days ago was during a time of unfavorable conditions. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:24, November 8, 2015 (UTC) :: Well... this one was extremely short lasting. Dropped off the TWD, without doing much at all (unless it was part of the previous Atlantic wave, which spawned a couple AOIs). '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 06:11, November 10, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Wave 1 (November 5 - November 12) Tropical Wave 1 (November 5 - November 12) Continued from the previous discussion, this one has now moved into the EPac, and the axis extends from Mexico near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, downwards into the ocean. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 21:02, November 11, 2015 (UTC) : Oh wow, it already dissipated. No longer on the TWD. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 06:03, November 13, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Wave 2 (November 5 - November 16) Tropical Wave 2 (November 5 - November 16) Continued from a previous discussion. The wave extends north from Guatemala where it's helping to induce some shower activity. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 06:03, November 13, 2015 (UTC) : It's now along 96W/97W extending from 8N to 14N. In more understandable terms, it's located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. I do hope this tropical wave, along with the one currently crossing Central America, cause another new named storm to pop up. It would be nice to see a November EPac storm this year. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:16, November 13, 2015 (UTC) :: The "next new named storm" is most likely to be the below AOI, but this wave is still hanging around south of Mexico. The TWD says it is a "weak" tropical wave so it could die out soon. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 03:11, November 16, 2015 (UTC) ::: And it has died out, not on the TWD anymore. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 00:58, November 17, 2015 (UTC) 99E.INVEST 99E.INVEST are you kidding me? --hon hon hon | hon hon hon • • 23:21, November 14, 2015 (UTC) :Yay, another AOI! Along with the invest designation, it's at 10/20 on the TWO. I really hope we can get Rick out of this! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:14, November 15, 2015 (UTC) ::Up to 10/30. It's looking pretty good currently as well. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:59, November 15, 2015 (UTC) :::I hope we see Rick out of this! I am glad the basin hasn't shut down yet. But the NHC notes that development should only be slow to occur, so Rick might not come until later this week, if it does decide to develop. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 03:09, November 16, 2015 (UTC) :::models develop this --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 19:42, November 16, 2015 (UTC) ::::It's actually down to 0/0, so it won't develop at all. But don't fret; there's a 10/20 AOI nearby that could have a chance at "Rick". '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 00:55, November 17, 2015 (UTC) Aoi: GFS late November-early December storm Aoi: GFS late November-early December storm GFS at it again! --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 20:01, November 16, 2015 (UTC) 21E.NONAME AOI: East of 99E At 10/20, I'm hoping for Rick out of this one. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 00:57, November 17, 2015 (UTC) : It's gone up to 30/50! The NHC also says conditions are favorable for development. Maybe we'll see Rick within 24 hours, even! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:44, November 17, 2015 (UTC) 90E.INVEST It's been invested, and it has quite a bit of associated convection. This is likely to be Rick, and the GFS might not be too crazy this time by developing it. EDIT: Wait, the above GFS storm is in DECEMBER. However, the GFS does make this into at least a tropical storm with a pressure of 1000 mb. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:17, November 17, 2015 (UTC) : Now 40/70. This is quite surprising for so late in the EPac season, we might see Rick out of this. Some of the models recurve it back to Mexico though...hopefully it remains at sea. 'Ryan1000' 22:02, November 17, 2015 (UTC) ::I'm hoping to see a tropical depression by tomorrow, and it looks to be continuing to organize. I'm glad the season wasn't completely over yet. I hope possible Rick doesn't wreck the coast though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:45, November 18, 2015 (UTC) ::::90/90! Here comes Rick, barring a sudden disorganization of the system for no reason. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:49, November 18, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E since when we had gone to this? --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 16:23, November 18, 2015 (UTC) : Looks like Rick is coming here, but it's not expected to get very strong, as conditions will deteriorate 2-3 days from now. If this becomes Rick, we'll break the tie between 1985 and this year for the second-most active Pacific season on record in terms of named storms. 'Ryan1000' 20:15, November 18, 2015 (UTC) ::It's still not Rick as of now, but the next advisory is out shortly. It better be named! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:25, November 19, 2015 (UTC) AOI: S of Mexico While a late season tropical depression is taking forever to become Rick, this new AOI has poped up on the 5-day outlook in the Gulf of (word that starts with T I can't spell). It's at 0/20. If we see Sandra out of this (assuming 21E actually becomes Rick), maybe it will become that storm on December 1st the GFS predicts. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:25, November 19, 2015 (UTC) Retirements at a glance We don't yet have anything that stands much of a chance of retirement, but six storms (with a seventh on the horizon) is enough for me, so without further ado... ;EPAC *Andres: 0% - A fish is a fish is a fish, but I'll be damned if this wasn't a fantastic early-season surprise. *Blanca: 1% - Intriguing to track, plus it was incredible to end the first week of June with two Category 4 hurricanes under the EPAC's belt, but any impacts were meager. *Carlos: 4% - A tad worse than Blanca, but still not severe enough for retirement. *Dolores: 0% - It became respectably strong, but if there were any impacts, they were negligible. *Enrique: Fail% - Él es el perdedor. *Felicia: https://youtu.be/PxDW8h9kMXs% - Gets an F-. *Guillermo: 4% - Hawaii has requested retirement of storms that have threatened them without ultimately doing any harm (see Kenneth '05, Daniel '06), but if last year's Iselle wasn't retired, Guillermo doesn't stand a chance. *Hilda: 3% - See Guillermo, though it was nice to see the EPAC's first-ever ''Hurricane Hilda, especially by such a wide margin. *Ignacio: 0% - Long-lived and powerful hurricane, but remained away from land. Any peripheral effects in Hawaii were likely negligible at best. *Jimena: 0% - Ignacio Plus. *Kevin: 0% - Not the epic fail it could have been, but becoming stronger than expected doesn't cut it for retirement. *Linda: 23% - Remnants caused the worst flooding disaster in Utah's history, but if 1983's Octave and last year's Norbert didn't get retired, then Linda probably won't either. *Marty: 3% - Wasn't much different from Carlos. *Nora: 0% - Didn't quite fail but was underwhelming nonetheless. *Olaf: 0% - President Snow was awesome. Powerful, long-lasting, southernmost (major) EPAC hurricane on record, first TC ever to cross from EPAC to CPAC and back again, set a record for most C4s in one season, and best of all, it didn't affect land. My favorite storm of this season. *'Patricia:' >50% 73% - I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Patricia already has a decent chance of retirement. It may not have hit land yet, but it would have to weaken by 40 kts to hit Mexico below Cat 5 intensity, 65 kts to hit below Cat 4, and 80 kts to hit as a non-major hurricane... within the next 12 hours. Unless Mother Nature works a miracle, apocalyptic damage is more-or-less inevitable at this point. *:A miracle was worked insofar as Patricia wasn't Armageddon for Mexico, but this was still a severe hurricane. In sparing population and industry centers such as Manzanillo, Patricia completely leveled at least one town near the ground zero of landfall, and damage from flooding has extended well inland. The current death toll of 13 is just below Odile's, and the damage bill of nearly $200 million (and counting) is almost twice as high as what got Kenna the boot. Maybe in past seasons I would've lowballed my percentage a little bit more, but after Manuel, Ingrid and Odile, I have renewed confidence in Mexico's willingness to retire names, so I'm a tad more expecting - though not 100% certain - that Patricia will be retired. ;CPAC *Ela: -6% - 'Ell no. (I'm sorry) *Halola: 5% - Gets props for becoming only the second CPAC-borne storm ever to make it to Japan, but effects there were rather light. *Iune: -4% - It failed miserably. *Kilo: 0% - Persistent and triumphant, but those qualities don't merit retirement. *Loke: 1% - Caused blustery weather at the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, but the area came out unscathed. *Malia: 0% - Fail, but it did extend this year's CPAC record to 6 named storms. *Niala: 0% - Didn't hit land and wasn't terribly strong, but dear God, at this rate we'll have more than double the previous record for CPAC named storms set in 1982. *Oho: HolyCrap% - Proved once and for all that the CPAC runs on batteries this year. Certainly an interesting storm to track, if one without many impacts. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:42, July 11, 2015 (UTC) The Steve has spoken: (Retirement colors: 0%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99% (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) EPac: *Andres: 0% - Fishspinner. It won't be retired, even though it was such an awesome early season surprise. *Blanca: 2.5% - Baja got away with this girl. If anything, rainstorms in Baja and SoCal won't earn it much of a retirement chance, although it did cause some slight impact here and there. *Carlos: 5% - Slow-moving coast of Mexico storm. I doubt it would be retired, but it did cause some impact in the country. *Dolores: 0% - It did a nice job at the major part, but impacts, if any, were meager. Baja and SoCal shouldn't get much either. *Enrique: 0% - See you in 2021! *Felicia: 0% - Actually, it deserves lower than an F-. It gets a Z. Yeah, that's right, a Z! What an extreme epic fail that deserves a place in the Hurricane Hall of Epically Failing! *Guillermo: 0% - Other than Hawaiian surf, this didn't cause much impacts other than spinning fish out in the middle of the Pacific ocean. *Hilda: 0% - Hawaii never got much from her. *Ignacio: 0% - Completely spared Hawaii from impacts. *Jimena: 0% - Well...she was impressive to track, and lasted a long time, but she'll likely return in 2021. *Kevin: 0% - As far as I know, it didn't affect land at all. *Linda: 1% - Out here in SoCal, she did channel in some moisture and it also produced minor impacts along the Baja coast. But sorry Linda, you'll most likely stay. *Marty: 1% - Impacts to Mexico weren't that much, so he'll stay for next time. *Nora: 0% - Land was never affected by her. *Olaf: 0% - Looks like the snowman is not a threat to land. *Patricia: 65% '''- Got so record powerful that we thought it would be absolutely '''catastrophic at landfall! Well, let's be glad she spared densely population regions from impacts, or this powerful beast would be an instant 99%. Such a bada$$ system; it's one of my favorite hurricanes of all time since it didn't cause as much devastation as originally feared, and reached the largest wind speed measurement ever. CPac: *Ela: 0% - Fishspinner, weakling...blah. What an epic fail, even though it formed in a rare basin. *Halola: 0% - Also failed to affect land. *Iune: 0% - Never in a million years. *Kilo: 0% - Got very powerful and it was also a long-lasting beast, being alive for as long as 3 weeks, but lack of impacts = see you next time! *Loke: 0% - Lack of impacts mean it's staying. *Malia: 0% - Again, failed to do bad things to land. And it is another living proof that Mother Nature is making the CPac record-energized this year. *Niala: 0% - The crazy basin produced yet another one, and again, it did not impact any human beings. *Oho: 0% - Another storm in the crazy record-breaking basin which failed to affect land. It did become a moderate hurricane, though. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 15:56, July 12, 2015 (UTC) Puffle's retirements Welp, here I go: ---- Legend ---- (Retirement colors: Fail%, 0%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 27%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99% (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) (Credit to Steve) ---- Andres: 0% - This did surprise me for an A-named storm, but no damages = meh. Blanca: 2.5% - Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for Blanca's "Category 5 hype". Made landfall directly in the Baja peninsula, where odile lives right now, no retirements getting rubbed in my face yet... Carlos: 27% - This one has a higher chance at retirement, Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for another "Category 5 hype". Killed 1 person and caused 1.1 million in damages. Slightly devastating for Mexico, but I don't see this one going either. #CarlosPLZ Dolores: 0% - FAIL... I'm sorry Dolores, Andres is way better looking than you Enrique: 0% - Sadly I would've expected a major from a storm named after my middle name. 3rd place of #NameWaste2015. Not tied 2nd because of the ‡. Depression Felicia: Fail% - Nominee and winner of #NameWaste2015. Gullimero - Fail% - these storms keep getting more fail-prone every time. Can't wait to see how much of a FAIL Hilda will be (despite that being my sister's name) Hilda - 0% - Actually, forget that, Hilda you surprised me. Eight-E - No. Just no. Why is this here? IT'S NOT NAMED!!! Ignacio - 1% - Eh... I'll stay here. Jimena - Fish. No. Kevin - Fail% - 2nd place for #NameWaste2015. There better be no more fails after this. Linda - 2% - Welp it existed but failed to be with the other C4s. Marty - 1% - Well, it existed at least. Nora - Bae% - Nora is bae. Bae will do nothing. Nora is unbae. Bae tag is for times i want to be funny. Olaf - ? - Active. The snowman is probably going to be a snow monster. Better call this one "Marshmallow". LOL. Patricia - 99% - Wait, WHAT?! This is abnormal, but 200mph?! This one can be Katrina: Mexico edition. Get ready for Odile 2.0! ---- CPac Names Ela - Fail% - No comment Halola - See my WPac retirements. Iune - Fail% - Wait, what? Kilo - 0% - WHAA? A C4?! IN THE CPAC?! Wow. Loke - Fail% - Another fail, but it broke a record for most CPac names used. And other CPAC storms I won't bother listing. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] ---- Odile's Retirements odile's fun retirement chances with memes (Retirement colors ��%, NaN%, '1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%' (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) (thanks steve for the colors) ayy lmao its my turn! Andres: NaN% - meh. Blanca: NaN% - as puffle says above. Carlos: carlos plz% 25% - CARLOS PLZ! AIN'T NOBODY HAS TIME FO' THAT! still. carlos plz. can get a tiny shot at retirement because of the 17 million pesos on luxury yacht damage Dolores: 15%- caused a lot of flood damage in the San Diego-Tijuana area. Enrique: NaN% - HAHAHAHAHA will be suprised if it gets retired. just sayin' Failelicia: ��% - poop emoji here Eight-E: NaN% - well we nearly broke a record. Guillermo: NaN% - fun to see an hurricane after fails. Hilda: NaN% - OH NO! NO MORE FAILS... ���������� Eleven-E: NaN% - NO WAI! Ignacio: NaN% - REALLY. #StopEPacFails Jimena: NaN% - deez nutz we nearly got a C5 here Kevin the minion: ��% poop emoji here Linda: 7.5% - Linda did nothing, buuuuuut... Marty: 5% - the remnants of it did quite some damage in northen mexico. Nora: Bae% NaN% - bae will not do anything. Olaf: Frozen% ''' '''NaN% - cuz of snowman The, Greatest, Monster, Since, Haiyan, And, Trashed, Linda, Rick, And, Even, Wilma, Patricia: NaN% - '''too damn scary to have a percentage cpac Ela: '''NaN% - WORST. STORM. EVER. Halola: 1% - well it was a nearly record-breaking storm. i'll stay here. see ya in a looooooooooooooooooong time! Iune: NaN% - wat Kilo: NaN% - noice nice to see a C4 in the CPac! LIoke: NaN% - meh... Malia: NaN% - ayy lmao a fish Niala: NaN% - HOLY. WHAT. THE. SEASON. Oho: NaN% - no comment... the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 18:18, July 19, 2015 (UTC) ---- Now it is time for my predictions: #Andres - 1% - Andres was a true early surprise, and kudos to it for becoming the westernmost May major. While its remnant moisture did bring unseasonable rainfall to Phoenix and cause some power outages in Colorado, these have not been described as extreme. Therefore, I believe Andres will stay. #Blanca - 2% - I am impressed that Blanca was able to become the earliest 2nd EPAC hurricane in general and reach the intensity it did. Its remnants brought some wave action to Puerto Vallarta and caused quite a few power outages. However, most of these were fixed within a day. Also, while SoCal did see some flooding from ex-Blanca, most of the rainfall was beneficial for the infamous drought there. Consequently, Blanca should stay as well. #Carlos - 6% - Carlos was a little worse than either Andres or Blanca. It downed some trees and billboards around Acapulco. In addition, it sank the Bellísima luxury yacht and killed someone from falling metal. Nevertheless, most of the flooding was not widespread, and there do not seem to be extreme destruction reports from Carlos. As a result, the $1.1 million (2015 USD) price tag should not be enough for retirement. #Ela - 0% - It was cool to see the CPAC come alive in the middle of July. But Ela did zilch to land, so you know the drill. #Halola - TBA - Still Active #Iune - 0% - Aside from being the earliest 3rd named CPAC storm, what did Iune do? #Dolores - 1% - Like Andres, it was amazing to see Dolores unexpectedly become a Category 4 so quickly. Most of its impacts so far have been from its associated moisture and not the storm itself. Sure, SoCal saw some incredible rainfall (namely LA and San Diego!) from this that was "historic", but most of the precipitation will be beneficial for the area. As a matter of fact, a persistent wildfire in Cajon Pass was exhausted because of ex-Dolores's moisture. So, Dolores, you are staying put, too. #Enrique - 0% - Enrique did surprise me with his persistence against his environment, and even became a tropical storm for a second time. But while Iglesias may have stolen Frank (1992)'s 8th storm ribbon, he did not harm land in the process. AndrewTalk To Me 00:05, July 22, 2015 (UTC) Ryan Grand is back: EPac: *Andres - 0% - Became pretty strong for such an early-season storm, but it caused no direct damage on land, so it won't be retired. *Blanca - 3% - Earliest 2nd (major) hurricane of any EPac season on record, and also the earliest Baja California landfall as well, but overall damage wasn't too severe; if anything the rainfall from it's remnants helped ease up California's drought a little. *Carlos - 5% - Slightly worse than Blanca, and Mexico was fortunate Carlos didn't get past category 1 strength as it neared the coastline, but this was no Manuel. It was modest at most, and will be coming back again in 2021. *Dolores - 0% - Slightly weaker than Andres, and als a bit farther east, but overall impacts from surf were minor at most. *Enrique - 0% - Fail, but at least he didn't fail as bad as Failicia. *Failicia - Pun% - << See the name. *Guillermo - 0% - Steered well clear of Hawaii, with no known damage or deaths. *Hilda - 0% - Did nothing notable to Hawaii, but it was still nice to see it become the first hurricane hilda ever. *Ignacio - 0% - Missed Hawaii well to the north, and won't be retired. *Jimena - 0% - Didn't affect land. *Kevin - 0% - Didn't expect it to fight that much, but it still won't be retired. *Linda - 4% - It's a real shame that this storm couldn't go without impact before dying...but 1 death and a little damage from surf won't cut the bill. And the extratropical flooding in Utah doesn't cut it for retirement either, especially if it didn't for Norbert or Octave. Linda is also the only major hurricane this year that didn't become a cat 4 as well. *Marty - 1% - Brought some coastal flooding to parts of Mexico, but it was nothing that they haven't seen before. *Nora - 0% - If only it became a hurricane... *Olaf - 0% - Didn't affect land, but by becoming the season's 8th category 4 hurricane, Olaf broke a 4-way tie at 7 cat 4's between 1992, 1993, last year, and this year for the most cat 4's ever recorded in one season. That's impressive. *Patricia - 65% - Depsite Patricia's extreme intensity at landfall and record intensity for a tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere, due to the scarce populaton of the area it struck, only 13 deaths were reported thus far and overall damage was (at least) 283 million dollars, which is a rather low number for a category 5 landfalling hurricane. Better yet, most of that was actually agricultural damage. Patricia could still be retired due to its historic impacts in the small coastal towns it destroyed (like Anita of 1977 was in the Atlantic), but I wouldn't say it's a 100% guaranteed retirement by any means. We'll see. CPac: *Ela - 0% - Nice early start for the CPac, but nothing to speak of regarding impacts. *Halola - 1% - Lasted quite a while and eventually made it to Japan, causing 1.2 million in crop damage with no deaths. Not nothing, but not enough either. *Iune - 0% - See Ela. *Kilo - 0% - It was one of the top 10 longest-lived tropical cyclones ever observed, but it didn't cause noticeable impacts on land. *Loke - 0% - Didn't harm land, but damn, 5 CPac named storms in one season. That's a new record. In your face 1982. *Malia - 0% - Aside from extending our (already record-setting) CPac named storm count from 5 to 6, there's nothing else to say here. *Niala - 0% - Spared Hawaii fortunately, but got us to 7 CPac storms in this season. *Oho - 0% - Did not hit Hawaii, but Eight. Central. Pacific. Named. Storms. In. One. Season. Is. Just. Unbelievable. There you go. Ryan1000 20:39, July 25, 2015 (UTC) I could have sworn I already made one of these. Oh, well. Here's mine. EPac: *Andres- 0%: Fun to track and didn't hit land. Nice storm, but it won't be retired *Blanca- 1%: Major hurricane that did cause damage, but not enough to be retired. *Carlos- 5%: One death and $1.1 million, again, it's not going anywhere. *Dolores- 0%: Again, an impressive storm, and minimal damage *Enrique- 0% Nope. *Felicia- 0% Bye Felicia, see you in 2021. What a fail. *Guillermo- 0% majorly hyped, but wound up doing nothing much *Hilda- 0% See Delores, except it caused no damage. *Ignacio: 0% Didn't affect land, but affected my appetite for nachos (sorry, I've made too many nacho jokes haven't I?) *Jimena: 0% Fun to track and lasted a long time, but it's not going anywhere *Kevin: 0% I, unlike others on this wiki, do not consider Kevin a fail, because it was heavily sheared. It tried hard and fought with the shear but didn't make it, so it's not going anwhere. *Linda: 1% It managed to cause one death. *Marty: 0% It was a hurricane, but didn't affect land. *Nora: 0%- Not a fail, but didn't hit land *Snowman:'' Currently active'' *''Patricia: 50%- Ah, bite me. This thing might not have done as much damage as originally feared, and Mexico's terrible retirement standards don't help. Also, due to this storm, I will never'' consider any other storm (except for a Felicia-type storm) a fail, because this is what a "win" storm would do. Also, I'm changing the "Boo!" part of my Halloween signature to "Patricia" because this storm was much scarier. '' CPac:' *Ela- 0%: Well, it existed *Halola- 1%: Did nothing in the CPac but crossed into the WPac and hit Japan, causing $1.2 million. Still Japan has been hit by many storms way worse than this, I doubt they'll even remember it. *Iune:-0%: Meh, at least it didn't do damage *Kilo: 0% Well, well. Kilo is finally dead and is one of the longest-lived storms on record. But, hey if John in 1994 wasn't retired, then Kilo won't be either. See you in whenever, I guess....................... *Loke- 0% It didn't hit land, but it broke the record for most named storms in the CPac. *Malia: 0%. Other than extending our record, it didn't do much. *Niala: 0% See Malia, but it was a bit more impressive *Oho: 0.1% Silly, Oho. You aren't supposed to get to British Coulbia or Alaska, remnants or not. Unless you're a typhoon. Ahem. leeboy100Katrina 2005-2015 22:55, August 29, 2015 (UTC) :'Delores'? Dolores* [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']][[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'2005 - 2015']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|��'KATRINA'��]] 15:53, September 8, 2015 (UTC) ::Whoops, my bad. I fixed it. Although, coincidentally the name Dolores was mispelled '''the exact same way' on the naming list in 1991! So apparently I'm not alone. leeboy100My Talk! 23:29, September 8, 2015 (UTC) Raindrop's retirements (Based 100% on rainfall amounts - just kidding) - With interestingness ratings! (Retirement colors: 0%, 10.1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 7F5%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99% (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain), 100% (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA, or absolutely devestating storms like Katrina (Unlikely to ever occur in EPAC basin) - Thanks to Steve820 for colors. Eastern Pacific: *Andres - 0% - Quite an amazing A storm. Almost as good as Amanda last year. Great start to the season! But it never hit anything, so it's staying. Interestingness (Ins.) A''' *Blanca - '''0.2% - It became a category 4 twice, which was impressive. It made landfall, but minimal damages means no retirement. Ins. A+ *Carlos - 2% - Carlos affected a lot of the coast of Mexico. However, damage was only $1.1 million, it should be staying. Ins. B-''' *Dolores - '''0% - Another category 4 that hit nothing. It didn't last very long. Ins. A-''' *Enrique - '''0% - The first EPAC storm this year that was not a hurricane. It lasted a good amount of time and became a tropical storm twice, and no damage. Ins. C''' *Failicia - '''-1% - Epic failure of a storm. It almost didn't form, then decided to steal a name. And it didn't hit anything. Ins. F''' *Gulliermo - '''0% - A category 2 hurricane that could have done damage to Hawaii but weakened before reaching it. Ins. B''' *Hilda - '''0% - Became a category 4, defying forecasts, which was amazing. And it didn't hit anything. Ins. A''' *Ignacio - '''0% - It didn't hit anything, but it's rapid intensification and re-intensifying into a hurricane at high latitudes was amazing. Ins. A+ *Jimena - 0% - A beautiful hurricane that became powerful and lasted a long time, and hit nothing. Ins. A+ *Kevin - 0% - It did it's best against the wind shear it was in, but it was too much for it to become a hurricane. No land effects. Ins. C''' *Linda - '''0.1% - A hurricane that existed, became a major, and dissipated in under a week. Did effect land a bit, but $30,000 in damages is nothing. Ins. B+ *Marty - 0% - A storm that breifly became a hurricane and managed to move near Mexico without doing significant damage. Ins. B-''' *Nora - '''0% - It was something to track, and became a strong tropical storm. Not something that will be remembered though. Ins. C''' *Olaf - '''0% - An amazing, powerful, and southerly fishspinner that along with being a southerly category 4 hurricane also became the third offical hurricane to cross from the CPAC to the EPAC basin. And it never hit any land. Ins. A+ *Patricia - 40% - The strongest hurricane ever, and made landfall as a category 5 hurricane. However, damage totals were not totally horrendous, with $282 million in damage, as hurricane-force winds, much less category 5 winds missed major cities. Maybe Patricia listened to people's prayers and made landfall in a less populated area. I'm giving Patricia a 40% chance at retirement because it wasn't absolutely horrible. I'd give an even lower chance if it wasn't for the intensity of the hurricane both at sea and at landfall. Ins. A+++ Central Pacific: *Ela - 0% - The first storm in the Central Pacific. That's about it. Ins. D-''' *Halola - '''1% - Managed to make it all the way to Japan, becoming a typhoon 2 times on the way - and did almost nothing. An amazing storm though. Ins. A''' *Iune - '''-1% - It was a tropical storm that is not memorable. Ins. F''' *Kilo - '''0% - A category 4 in the Central Pacific, an unusual thing. Then after becoming a category 4 it became a typhoon and lasted over 3 weeks total. It never hit anything until it was long extratropical, and there were no notable impacts from that. Ins. A+ *Loke - 0% - A hurricane in the Central Pacific, more interesting then a weak tropical storm in the central pacific. Also had an erratic northward track. It also hit nothing. It ALSO set the record for storms forming in the CPAC. Ins. B-''' *Malia - '''0% - At least it became a tropical storm. Ins. D-''' *Niala - '''0% - This was fun to track, and defied forecasts some. They also mentioned that it had been stronger then thought in the discussion, so it might be upgraded to 70 or 75 mph post-season. No land effects. Ins. B-''' *Oho - '''0% - Well, it almost managed to enter the EPAC basin. Olaf would have been more fitting for this storm which went to hit Alaska as an ET storm. Ins. A-''' '''~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:38, October 28, 2015 (UTC) It's about time I post mine: '''''EPAC *Andres: 0% - Great start to the season, but he was a fishie. *Blanca: 1% - Minor damages only, she's staying. *Carlos: 3% - It could've been way worse for Mexico. *Dolores: 0% - Again, nice Cat4, but no damages or fatalities. *Enrique: 0% - Nope. *Felicia: 0% - Let's see...NOPE. *Guillermo: 1% - Don't count on it, but Hawaii is unpredictable. *Hilda: 0% - Another Category 4 monster, but no major effects. *Ignacio: 1% - Amazing hurricane that traveled at high latitudes, his awesomeness gives him 1%. *Jimena: 0% - Beautiful hurricane, but like Andres, Dolores, and Hilda, she's gonna be back in 2021. *Kevin: 0% - He tried the best he could, but he'll also be back. *Linda: 1% - She may have contributed a bit to the Utah floods, but the damages aren't enough. *Marty: 0% - I highly doubt it, although there were some effects on Mexico. *Nora: 0% - No. *Olaf: 1% - Mr. Snowman didn't impact anybody. *Patricia: 70% - Holy shit was she an epic hurricane, in fact the strongest ever recorded which is a quite impressive feat by itself. She wasn't as bad as expected in Mexico, but honestly after the hype and the fact it caused some significant damage will likely convince them to retire the name. CPAC *Ela: 0% - She may have become the third earliest tropical storm to form in the CPac but that doesn't warrant removal off of the naming list. *Halola: 5% - She made it all the way to Japan and produced some damage, but not quite enough. *Iune: 0% - No. *Kilo: 1% - Another impressive hurricane, but he isn't going to be retired either. *Loke: 0% - Became a hurricane, but didn't go anywhere. *Malia: 0% - Nah. *Niala: 0% - No. *Oho: 1% - He gets a percentage point for impressiveness. I'll update this if any other storms form through the remainder of the season. Owen 01:07, October 17, 2015 (UTC) Post-season changes Andres's TCR was released a while ago, and Felicia's was completed last week. Andres's winds were reduced slightly from 130 kts to 125 (no advisory had Andres at 130 kts, but it was mentioned in one of the discussions that Andres was believed to have peaked at that intensity in between advisories), but its pressure was nudged downward from 938 mbar to 937. Nothing new came with Felicia's TCR. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:00, September 9, 2015 (UTC) : I wish Jimena was a little stronger operationally, but it's very unlikely post-season reanalysis will upgrade it to a 5 like it could've been, but it could be upped slightly to 155 mph in either one of its peaks. I don't think there's any other storm this year that I have hopes for being upgraded in reanalysis (as of yet). Ryan1000 19:07, September 9, 2015 (UTC) : 8-E, Enrique's TCR are out. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 20:21, September 19, 2015 (UTC) ::Looks like CPHC TCRs won't come out until 2017 at this point.--Isaac829 20:30, October 6, 2015 (UTC) :::Guillermo is out. Peak intensity raised to 95 kts/967 mbar, meaning it came just shy of major hurricane status. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:07, October 10, 2015 (UTC) PMC (my fake hurricane center) has released TCR for Failelicia, Downgraded to Depression Felecia. (Kept the name.) Argh. forgot to sign...[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 19:29, October 21, 2015 (UTC) the most hyped TCR might be Patricia's. we could see our first sub 870mb storm based on recon --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 17:29, October 24, 2015 (UTC) : Dolores and Carlos are out, along with Hilda. No notable, if any, changes with any of them. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:26, November 6, 2015 (UTC) Replacement Names Since Patricia could be retired at this point, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Patricia? Interestingly, if this becomes retired, it would be the first replacement name in the EPac to be retired, as Patricia replaced Pauline after 1997. Some of my suggestions are here: *Penelope *Pam(ela) *Pandora *Phoebe *Phyllis *Pearle/Perla/Pearlina *Puebla Thoughts? Ryan1000 10:47, October 24, 2015 (UTC) :Phoebe sounds like a good replacement name. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 12:48, October 24, 2015 (UTC) :::My personal picks would probably be either Pamela or Penelope, but Pearl, Phyllis, and Phoebe aren't bad options either. Ryan1000 13:17, October 24, 2015 (UTC) :::i support Pamela. (Puebla is just plain wrong. its an name for a mexican city and state of the same name) --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 17:27, October 24, 2015 (UTC) :::I'll go with Pamela or Phyllis. Priscilla is another choice too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:51, October 28, 2015 (UTC) I would choose Phoebe and Phyllis. MarcusSanchez My Own Talk Administrator of HHW 18:24, October 25, 2015 (UTC)MarcusSanchez : Uh, Anonymous, there's already a Priscilla on the lists (remember that 2013 epic fail TS?). It will be used again in 2019. And Peubla would not be that good of a choice, either, due to the Mexican province and city. Personally, I'd choose Phoebe, Pamela, or Phyllis out of Ryan's list. It would also be nice to see "Pandora" but I'm not sure about that due to the music service of the same name :P [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 01:08, October 29, 2015 (UTC) : Pamela was retired in the WPac though (I'm not sure, but Pamela was replaced by Peggy in 1986... the last use of Pamela was in 1982 though), so maybe Phyllis or even Pam (although that would just remind us of the SHem cyclone earlier this year) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:30, November 3, 2015 (UTC) I think Pamela of 1982 was really retroactively retired in respect of the Typhoon Pamela that thrashed Guam in May 1976, but I can't be sure. If that's the case, then we in the U.S. might not want Pamela (since Guam is a U.S. territory), so Phoebe, Phyllis and Penelope would be better. Ryan1000 00:23, November 4, 2015 (UTC)